When Ovechkin broke into the NHL scoring 52 goals in his first season, I remember thinking to myself, "how many times does he have to do this to break Gretzky's all time goal scoring record?"
Watching him get 50+ goals year after year, I started thinking that if he could stay healthy, that maybe, just maybe, he might be able to play long enough to squeak past by a goal or two. Then, what seemingly felt like out of no where, Ovechkin, for the first time in 6 years, missed the 40 goal mark. He had three consecutive seasons where he got less than 40. One of those being the lockout shortened season in 2013 to get 32 goals in 48 games.
After that season, Ovi was able to string together back-to-back-to-back 50+ goal seasons again. Last season was a season that he dipped back down to under 40. However he looks to be on pace for 50 again this season (as of March 3rd). That should put Ovi on pace to hit 607 goals for his career by the end of this season.
Wayne Gretzky had 894 goals in his incredible career. That is 297 more than where Ovechkin sits at. #99 is ahead of him by around 500 games. If you take Ovechkin's pace of goals so far, and extrapolate that to the amount of games it takes him to catch Gretzky, the math says that Ovechkin will beat Gretzky by a handful of goals. If Ovi drops his pace, and it takes him longer to reach Gretzky's goal total, than he will have to rely on playing longer to achieve this unreachable record.
Is the following out of the realm of possibilities?
Adjust them how you see fit. Maybe he breaks 50 again next year, and that allows him to score less later on down the road.
It is still a far ways away, but it's going to be interesting to keep an eye on. Personally, I'd love to see someone challenge one of Gretzky's perceived "unbreakable" records. It will never be his point record, but his goal record, that will be interesting.
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