The Francis Report - Ep12 - 12 Days of Leafsmas

Latest episode of The Francis Report is out! Mike and I write our own version of the 12 Days of Christmas.  Talk about if the Leafs are for real this time, about The Big Ice chat, and what the Leafs should do to shed some salary.

Jeff's Holiday Song!

Twas the week before Christmas, and all through the rink,

Not a Ducks fan cheering, They’re all pukin in the sinks

Bozie and Getzlaf faceoff on the dot,

Phanuef starts laying checks, getting Jackman all hot.

Kessel bringing dekes, turnin Fowler all blue
He even beats Bryzgalov, for a goal or two.
With Kessel & Kadri scoring all over the place,
Bryzgalov could do nothing but bury his face.
Robidas start chirpin, getting the Ducks all riled up,
Boudreau sends out Jackman, and says “Enough is enough”
Jackman starts pushing, Phaneuf on the ice,
In comes the Ref to make them play nice.
The Leafs light up Anderson like a pretty Christmas Tree,
Making all the Leafs fans scream with glee,.
The final whistle blows, The Fan Deck sighs in relief
Because the Ducks gets their butts beat, by the Toronto Maple Leafs

Santo Claus; The Gift that Keeps on Giving

This Leafs season has a couple of ties to the Nashville Predators. On November 19th the Preds handed the Leafs a 9-2 loss at the ACC, which proved to be the wakeup call this team needed, going 9-1-1 since the mid November debacle. During this streak, the Leafs have seen improved play from a majority of the team, however, they have been led by an unsuspecting player, who happens to be a former Nashville Predator.

 Mike Santorelli was picked 178th overall in the 6th round of the 04 NHL entry draft by the Predators. Santorelli spent the bulk of his time in Milwaukee with the Preds AHL affiliate, scoring 171Pts (74G, 97A) over 3 seasons with the Preds AHL affiliate. He only ended up playing 32 games with the big club in Nashville, making his NHL debut in the 08/09 season. In 2010/11 Santorelli became a member of the Florida Panthers, and finally experienced his first full 82 game season, where he posted his career highs in goals (20), assists (21) and points (41). Following the success of this season, he would experience a huge drop off, appearing in only 60 games. During the lockout season he played 4 games in Sweden for Tingsryds AIF, and 24 games for the Panthers, before eventually ending up in the AHL once again and closing out the season in Winnipeg. It appeared as though he would end up another journeyman playing in the NHL, bouncing from team to team, never being able to find a home.

 Last season, Santorelli signed with his 4th NHL team, the Vancouver Canucks. In what was a productive season, he played 49 games and finished the season with 10G, 18A for 28Pts, while also earning league wide recognition for his play on the penalty kill. However, the theme of not being able to stick with an NHL club continued as Santorelli did not receive a new contract from the Canucks. Luckily for the Leafs, and Santorelli, this season Dave Nonis and the rest of the Toronto front office realized that depth was something an NHL team needed to do things like win hockey games.

 In an offseason where the Leafs turned their attention to addressing the depth (or lack thereof) on the team, by signing guys such as; Leo Komarov, Daniel Winnik and David Booth. Perhaps the best offseason move the Leafs made came on July 3rd when the signed Mike Santorelli to a 1yr, $1.5 million deal. In the Leafs current 9-1-1 streak, Santorelli leads the team in scoring (3G, 10A, 13 Pts) and seems to have found great chemistry on the Leafs hottest line alongside Kadri and Winnik. For the season, Santorelli has 6G, 16A, 22Pts, which puts him on pace to set career highs in all three categories. Santorelli is 4th overall in team scoring, behind only Kessel, Bozak and JVR, and is tied for 2nd overall in the entire league in +/- (+17). Also, Santorelli (along with Winnik) has been a pivotal piece of the Leafs 10th ranked penalty kill. For a $1.5 million dollar "prove it" contract, so far Santorelli is setting himself up for an "I proved it, now pay me" contract next offseason.

 It has been fun to watch the Leafs on this current streak, and all of us in Leafs nation hope that it continues. The highlight for me personally has been the emergence and consistent play of Mike Santorelli, a journeyman NHLer who is quickly becoming a fan favourite here in Toronto. It's still too early to tell if he will finally be able to land a long term deal to stay with the Maple Leafs, however, if he continues to play at the level he is, this may turn out to be a match made in hockey heaven, and Santorelli may finally have found a place to call home.

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Leafs Winning Streak a Cause for Concern?

Last seasons monumental collapse is something no Leaf fan wants to experience ever again. For the better part of the beginning of this season, the Leafs had been improving in all the areas that hindered them in the 2013/14 campaign. However, this current streak has brought up memories of last seasons hot start, and the eventual collapse The Leafs are currently on a 7-1-1 run, and all of us in Leafs nation are enjoying the current stretch of winning. However, there are far too many statistical similarities between the Leafs current streak, and last year’s hot start. The Leafs may be winning, but their play is declining, and that is concerning considering where that lead the team in 2013/14. In the last 3 games (all wins) the Leafs have been out shot 110-76, for a -34 differential, some of these shots against can be attributed to the Leafs being able to sit back on their lead, however, the Leafs sit back far too much, and this style of play is one that has come back to hurt the Leafs historically (hate to bring it up but, see Boston game 7) The Leafs have had an average shooting percentage of 13% which is unsustainable when compared to the league average 9%. One of the main reasons the Leafs have experienced success over the past two seasons is their stellar goaltending.

Prior to Saturday night, Jonathan Bernier had 9 consecutive starts for the Leafs, playing some of his best games as a Leaf. In the 9 games, Bernier had faced 303 and stopped 284 for a .937 save percentage, which is outstanding. In two of his last starts Bernier has had his best two performances during the stretch, first against Vancouver (stopping 44 of 46) then against Calgary on Tuesday. Reimer was called upon Wednesday might, in a move that had great skepticism. Reimer having not played in almost a month, had many speculating a rusty game for the Leafs backup, however it was quite the opposite , Reimer stopped 41/42 (.976 Sv. %) shots and was the sole reason the leafs were even in the game through three periods. Looking at the 9 game stretch last season, the Leafs goaltenders faced 305 shots and stopped 283 for a save percentage of .927, eerily similar to the similar stretch last season. A solid (sustainable) save percentage for an NHL goalie is about .915, if

The Leaf goaltending was playing with a .915 SV% the teams record (in both cases) without a doubt looks drastically different. In both the current streak and the streak of last season, the Leafs have been fortunate to have their goalies bailing them out with above average play, which unfortunately for them, is not sustainable through an 82 game season. Whether you are a fan of advanced stats or not, there is no denying that to win hockey games you must possess the puck.

 It goes without saying but, if you do not possess the puck, you cannot shoot it, score with it, or do anything except defend, and in the Leafs case, spend a lot of time hemmed in your own zone. Against Detroit, the Leafs had the worst single game possession percentage (26%) of any team in the league this season, low possession is something becoming a trend with this team again, and is something that cannot be ignored.

Last season through the Leafs first 9 games they were dead last in the league with a possession percentage of 43.3%, comparatively in this 9 game stretch the Leafs have a very similar, yet even worse possession percentage at 43%. Toronto finished 29th in the league with a 42.8% possession percentage, something that the team desperately needed to improve this season. Prior to this 9 game streak the Leafs had been showing improvement in their possession sitting at 47.3%, still not amazing, but an improvement nonetheless. Hopefully, with the Leafs bringing in guys like Kyle Dubas, these issues are already being brought to the attention of the team, and they're going to be fixed before we end up with another lost season.

The Leafs had been improving in their possession game prior to this 9 game run, slowly improving in managing more shots for and less against, and their goaltending wasn't forced to play at an unrealistic level. As odd as it may seem to be hoping the team can "turn in around" while in of 7-1-1 streak, the stats do not lie, and have come back to hurt the Leafs in the past. It is great to be able to watch the Leafs win, and continue to climb the eastern conference standings. However, and I hope this is not the case, we could potentially be seeing the team rewrite their collapse of last season. As Leaf fans that have experienced what we have over the past couple of years, we should enjoy when the team is winning, but realize there is more to hockey games than the final score, and during streaks like this we need to temper expectations and just take it one game at a time.

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Maple Leafs; a One Liner No More

For as long as the Kessel, VanReimsdyk and Bozak line has been together, the Leafs have been known as a one line team, that are easy to handle when the top line isn't producing. However, some bargain free agent signings last offseason, the emergence of Peter Holland, and a lot of 'O' from the 'D', have allowed the Leafs to get a glimpse of what it's like to have depth in their lineup.

  David Clarkson  (7G, 1A, 9 Pts) makes $5.25 million a year. Daniel Winnik, David Booth, Leo Komarov and Mike Santorelli combined make $4.8 million, this is a testiment to how much more productive last offseason was to the year prior. In an uncharachteristic move, Dave Nonis  approached last offseason a little differently than in years past. Instead of paying one large contract to a big name free agent, Nonis signed multiple players to smaller contracts, a move that (so far) is paying off nicely for the 3rd year GM. The largest contract the Leafs offered last offseason was to Leo Komarov, a move that no Leafs fan could argue was a bad one. In 23 GP Komarov has 4G, 12A, 16 Pts, which has him on pace to easily surpass the numbers he put up during his first stint with the blue & white. Mike Santorelli has been one of the least talked about, most productive Leaf players all season. Santorelli (4G, 14A, 18Pts), along with Daniel Winnik (1G, 8A, 9Pts) have not only been productive on the score sheet, but both have been pivotal on the PK which currently ranks 11th in the NHL, a drastic improvement from what we saw last season where the Leafs ended up with the 28th ranked PK in the league. The final bargain signing for the Leafs this offseason was David Booth (1yr, $1.1 million), unfortunately for Booth he has missed most of the season with a broken foot suffered in the preaseason, after another few games getting his legs back, we should start to see what he will bring to the lineup. It is unclear as to who is really running this team following last offseasons various hirings and firings. One thing is evident however, coach Carlyle was forced to change at least some of his coaching tactics.

   If there is one player that has beneffited from the changes made by the Leafs last offseason, its Peter Holland. Holland was acquired in a trade last season that saw Anaheim receive defenseman Jesse Blacker, and two draft picks from the Leafs. When given more than 4:00 minutes of ice time, Holand showed flashes of great play and offensive skill, however, no matter how successful he was, much like the rest of the bottom six forwards last season, he would see less than 8:00 minutes of ice time a night. This season to start, it appeared we would be seeing (or not seeing) more of the same. However, recently Holland has been seeing an increased amount of ice time, and much like last season, increased production when he actually sees the ice. As it sits right now Holland has 5G, 4A, 9Pts and has been shooting the puck a ton. Hopefully, Randy Carlyle's new found confidence in the centre will allow his ice time to continue to increase, because it seems like the more he plays, the better he plays, and production from Holland would make the Leafs bottom six that much more effective. The Leafs have always been knocked for their lack of scoring depth, this season the additions to the forward core and their production have only been helped by the fire power from the Leafs back end.

  So far this season the Leafs have been seeing great offensive production from their defense. The Leafs defense might not be the best in the league (at all), and as much as they need to focus on their defensive game, the offense they are providing doesn't hurt. Heading in to tonight's game against the Canucks, the Leafs defense has 58 points (12G, 48A) which has them on pace to top their numbers from last season. Special mention has to go to Cody Franson who has 18 of those 58 points, is 6th in team scoring and 13th in the league when it comes to points for a defenseman. Franson is in his 3rd one year deal with the Leafs, and is quitely having his best season with the team. If he continues to play at the level he has been playing, the Leafs will have to decide once and for all whether they will sign him to the long term deal he's been looking for (if they dont someone will), or trade him at the deadline. If the defense can keep up with thier point production, while tightening up their defensive game and responsibilites, the Leafs defense may end up being one of the teams greatest strengths by seasons end.

   Although it's never good when your top line goes silent and isn't producing, as a Leafs fan it's nice to know the team has the firepower to still compete in any given game if the big three go silent in a game. The evidence of the depth is clear; with the top line slowing down in 6 games prior to the game against the Devils, the Leafs top line posted 9G, 8A for 17Pts, where as the rest of the team combined for 16G, 25A for 41Pts in the same span. If the Leafs depth players and defense can continue to produce at a steady rate, whenever the top line does play like we all know they are capable of, this Leafs team will be a force to be wreckoned with, and potentially, a dangerous post season opponent to any team.
   

  

A Chance to Thrive for #45

Early in to the 2014/15 season it was looking like the Leafs would be experiencing another season with a goalie controversy on their hands. As we move into the second quarter of the season it appears Bernier is ready to claim the net. 

Initially , when Dave Nonis made the trade for Bernier last offseason, I was very much bewildered by the move and totally against it, granted, I have always been a huge fan of James Reimer, especially following the lockout shortened season where he dragged the Leafs into the playoffs and single handedly took them to game 7 with the Bruins. 

  The Bernier deal seemed, at the time like a move that was made to address an area the Leafs had no need to address, especially when defense was (and continues to be) a glaring area of need for this team. As soon as the trade was made it was believed Bernier was finally going to be given the chance tp be a number one goalie, an opportunity the entire league felt he deserved. 

  At first it appeared as though Randy Carlyle was going to stick to the 1a, 1b system with the two net minders. Perhaps this philosophy is what created the controversy in the first place, the whole narrative could've been avoided if Carlyle had just named Bernier the number one. Although Carlyle  always seemed more comfortable to use Bernier on a nightly basis. As the season progressed #45 was earning a majority of the starts, ending up with 55 games played, a number that likely would have been higher if not for a late season groin injury. Considering how the Leafs ended last season, it would only seem natural Bernier would be able to come in to this season and be named the outright number one. However, an offseason that saw a 2 year extension for James Reimer, more confusing quotes from the head coachwould lead to more confusion surrounding the Toronto net.

Bernier began the season with a (1-3-0 ) allowing 10 goals in 3 losses, many of which were shaky, making the netminder look very human, especially compared to last season. The lacklustre start combined with what was a solid start for Reimer, had many questioning if Bernier would seize the opportunity and take over the net in Toronto. However, if there is one thing Carlyle should get credit for, continued faith in Bernier appears to be paying off. Recently, Bernier has been given complete control of his destiny and is proving equal to the task. One thing is clear about Jonathan Bernier, when he is on, he is dynamite and can steal you a few games. The one thing Leaf nation need to see from him is consitency. In the last 5 games Bernier is 4-0-1 and has looked solid in each of the starts. We haven't seen Reimer in net since  November 18th against the Preds.

Bernier is set to make his 7th conescutive start tonight, as the Leafs take on the Devils. It appears as if he is ready to claim sole posession of the number one spot on the depth chart. No matter what happens throughout the rest of this season the Leafs will have a crucial decision to make at the end of the season. There is no doubt then when he is playing at the level we all know he is capable of, Bernier is a top 10 goalie in the NHL. The Leafs have a big decision to make at the conclusion of this season; do they go all in on Bernier and sign him to a contract worthy of a number one goalie? or do they dangle him at the deadline and try to get maximum return, the latter would make little to no sense, as Nonis tried for so long to secure the netminder. As long as Bernier keeps up his play of late, I see no reason why the Leafs should not pay him the contract he deserves and allow Toronto to finally have a bonifed number one goalie, not only for this season, but for years to come.

By the numbers;

Jonathan Bernier, G,  Toronto Maple Leafs        17 GP       9W, 5L, 3OTL 2.62GAA, .917 SV%

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