Last seasons monumental collapse is something no Leaf fan
wants to experience ever again. For the better part of the beginning of this
season, the Leafs had been improving in all the areas that hindered them in the
2013/14 campaign. However, this current streak has brought up memories of last
seasons hot start, and the eventual collapse The Leafs are currently on a 7-1-1
run, and all of us in Leafs nation are enjoying the current stretch of winning.
However, there are far too many statistical similarities between the Leafs
current streak, and last year’s hot start. The Leafs may be winning, but their
play is declining, and that is concerning considering where that lead the team
in 2013/14. In the last 3 games (all wins) the Leafs have been out shot 110-76,
for a -34 differential, some of these shots against can be attributed to the
Leafs being able to sit back on their lead, however, the Leafs sit back far too
much, and this style of play is one that has come back to hurt the Leafs
historically (hate to bring it up but, see Boston game 7) The Leafs have had an
average shooting percentage of 13% which is unsustainable when compared to the
league average 9%. One of the main reasons the Leafs have experienced success
over the past two seasons is their stellar goaltending.
Prior to Saturday night, Jonathan Bernier had 9 consecutive
starts for the Leafs, playing some of his best games as a Leaf. In the 9 games,
Bernier had faced 303 and stopped 284 for a .937 save percentage, which is
outstanding. In two of his last starts Bernier has had his best two
performances during the stretch, first against Vancouver (stopping 44 of 46)
then against Calgary on Tuesday. Reimer was called upon Wednesday might, in a
move that had great skepticism. Reimer having not played in almost a month, had
many speculating a rusty game for the Leafs backup, however it was quite the
opposite , Reimer stopped 41/42 (.976 Sv. %) shots and was the sole reason the
leafs were even in the game through three periods. Looking at the 9 game
stretch last season, the Leafs goaltenders faced 305 shots and stopped 283 for
a save percentage of .927, eerily similar to the similar stretch last season. A
solid (sustainable) save percentage for an NHL goalie is about .915, if
The Leaf goaltending was playing with a .915 SV% the teams
record (in both cases) without a doubt looks drastically different. In both the
current streak and the streak of last season, the Leafs have been fortunate to
have their goalies bailing them out with above average play, which
unfortunately for them, is not sustainable through an 82 game season. Whether
you are a fan of advanced stats or not, there is no denying that to win hockey
games you must possess the puck.
It goes without
saying but, if you do not possess the puck, you cannot shoot it, score with it,
or do anything except defend, and in the Leafs case, spend a lot of time hemmed
in your own zone. Against Detroit, the Leafs had the worst single game
possession percentage (26%) of any team in the league this season, low
possession is something becoming a trend with this team again, and is something
that cannot be ignored.
Last season through the Leafs first 9 games they were dead
last in the league with a possession percentage of 43.3%, comparatively in this
9 game stretch the Leafs have a very similar, yet even worse possession
percentage at 43%. Toronto finished 29th in the league with a 42.8% possession
percentage, something that the team desperately needed to improve this season.
Prior to this 9 game streak the Leafs had been showing improvement in their possession
sitting at 47.3%, still not amazing, but an improvement nonetheless. Hopefully,
with the Leafs bringing in guys like Kyle Dubas, these issues are already being
brought to the attention of the team, and they're going to be fixed before we
end up with another lost season.
The Leafs had been improving in their possession game prior
to this 9 game run, slowly improving in managing more shots for and less
against, and their goaltending wasn't forced to play at an unrealistic level.
As odd as it may seem to be hoping the team can "turn in around"
while in of 7-1-1 streak, the stats do not lie, and have come back to hurt the
Leafs in the past. It is great to be able to watch the Leafs win, and continue
to climb the eastern conference standings. However, and I hope this is not the
case, we could potentially be seeing the team rewrite their collapse of last
season. As Leaf fans that have experienced what we have over the past couple of
years, we should enjoy when the team is winning, but realize there is more to
hockey games than the final score, and during streaks like this we need to
temper expectations and just take it one game at a time.
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