Leafs Winning Streak a Cause for Concern?

Last seasons monumental collapse is something no Leaf fan wants to experience ever again. For the better part of the beginning of this season, the Leafs had been improving in all the areas that hindered them in the 2013/14 campaign. However, this current streak has brought up memories of last seasons hot start, and the eventual collapse The Leafs are currently on a 7-1-1 run, and all of us in Leafs nation are enjoying the current stretch of winning. However, there are far too many statistical similarities between the Leafs current streak, and last year’s hot start. The Leafs may be winning, but their play is declining, and that is concerning considering where that lead the team in 2013/14. In the last 3 games (all wins) the Leafs have been out shot 110-76, for a -34 differential, some of these shots against can be attributed to the Leafs being able to sit back on their lead, however, the Leafs sit back far too much, and this style of play is one that has come back to hurt the Leafs historically (hate to bring it up but, see Boston game 7) The Leafs have had an average shooting percentage of 13% which is unsustainable when compared to the league average 9%. One of the main reasons the Leafs have experienced success over the past two seasons is their stellar goaltending.

Prior to Saturday night, Jonathan Bernier had 9 consecutive starts for the Leafs, playing some of his best games as a Leaf. In the 9 games, Bernier had faced 303 and stopped 284 for a .937 save percentage, which is outstanding. In two of his last starts Bernier has had his best two performances during the stretch, first against Vancouver (stopping 44 of 46) then against Calgary on Tuesday. Reimer was called upon Wednesday might, in a move that had great skepticism. Reimer having not played in almost a month, had many speculating a rusty game for the Leafs backup, however it was quite the opposite , Reimer stopped 41/42 (.976 Sv. %) shots and was the sole reason the leafs were even in the game through three periods. Looking at the 9 game stretch last season, the Leafs goaltenders faced 305 shots and stopped 283 for a save percentage of .927, eerily similar to the similar stretch last season. A solid (sustainable) save percentage for an NHL goalie is about .915, if

The Leaf goaltending was playing with a .915 SV% the teams record (in both cases) without a doubt looks drastically different. In both the current streak and the streak of last season, the Leafs have been fortunate to have their goalies bailing them out with above average play, which unfortunately for them, is not sustainable through an 82 game season. Whether you are a fan of advanced stats or not, there is no denying that to win hockey games you must possess the puck.

 It goes without saying but, if you do not possess the puck, you cannot shoot it, score with it, or do anything except defend, and in the Leafs case, spend a lot of time hemmed in your own zone. Against Detroit, the Leafs had the worst single game possession percentage (26%) of any team in the league this season, low possession is something becoming a trend with this team again, and is something that cannot be ignored.

Last season through the Leafs first 9 games they were dead last in the league with a possession percentage of 43.3%, comparatively in this 9 game stretch the Leafs have a very similar, yet even worse possession percentage at 43%. Toronto finished 29th in the league with a 42.8% possession percentage, something that the team desperately needed to improve this season. Prior to this 9 game streak the Leafs had been showing improvement in their possession sitting at 47.3%, still not amazing, but an improvement nonetheless. Hopefully, with the Leafs bringing in guys like Kyle Dubas, these issues are already being brought to the attention of the team, and they're going to be fixed before we end up with another lost season.

The Leafs had been improving in their possession game prior to this 9 game run, slowly improving in managing more shots for and less against, and their goaltending wasn't forced to play at an unrealistic level. As odd as it may seem to be hoping the team can "turn in around" while in of 7-1-1 streak, the stats do not lie, and have come back to hurt the Leafs in the past. It is great to be able to watch the Leafs win, and continue to climb the eastern conference standings. However, and I hope this is not the case, we could potentially be seeing the team rewrite their collapse of last season. As Leaf fans that have experienced what we have over the past couple of years, we should enjoy when the team is winning, but realize there is more to hockey games than the final score, and during streaks like this we need to temper expectations and just take it one game at a time.

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A Chance to Thrive for #45

Early in to the 2014/15 season it was looking like the Leafs would be experiencing another season with a goalie controversy on their hands. As we move into the second quarter of the season it appears Bernier is ready to claim the net. 

Initially , when Dave Nonis made the trade for Bernier last offseason, I was very much bewildered by the move and totally against it, granted, I have always been a huge fan of James Reimer, especially following the lockout shortened season where he dragged the Leafs into the playoffs and single handedly took them to game 7 with the Bruins. 

  The Bernier deal seemed, at the time like a move that was made to address an area the Leafs had no need to address, especially when defense was (and continues to be) a glaring area of need for this team. As soon as the trade was made it was believed Bernier was finally going to be given the chance tp be a number one goalie, an opportunity the entire league felt he deserved. 

  At first it appeared as though Randy Carlyle was going to stick to the 1a, 1b system with the two net minders. Perhaps this philosophy is what created the controversy in the first place, the whole narrative could've been avoided if Carlyle had just named Bernier the number one. Although Carlyle  always seemed more comfortable to use Bernier on a nightly basis. As the season progressed #45 was earning a majority of the starts, ending up with 55 games played, a number that likely would have been higher if not for a late season groin injury. Considering how the Leafs ended last season, it would only seem natural Bernier would be able to come in to this season and be named the outright number one. However, an offseason that saw a 2 year extension for James Reimer, more confusing quotes from the head coachwould lead to more confusion surrounding the Toronto net.

Bernier began the season with a (1-3-0 ) allowing 10 goals in 3 losses, many of which were shaky, making the netminder look very human, especially compared to last season. The lacklustre start combined with what was a solid start for Reimer, had many questioning if Bernier would seize the opportunity and take over the net in Toronto. However, if there is one thing Carlyle should get credit for, continued faith in Bernier appears to be paying off. Recently, Bernier has been given complete control of his destiny and is proving equal to the task. One thing is clear about Jonathan Bernier, when he is on, he is dynamite and can steal you a few games. The one thing Leaf nation need to see from him is consitency. In the last 5 games Bernier is 4-0-1 and has looked solid in each of the starts. We haven't seen Reimer in net since  November 18th against the Preds.

Bernier is set to make his 7th conescutive start tonight, as the Leafs take on the Devils. It appears as if he is ready to claim sole posession of the number one spot on the depth chart. No matter what happens throughout the rest of this season the Leafs will have a crucial decision to make at the end of the season. There is no doubt then when he is playing at the level we all know he is capable of, Bernier is a top 10 goalie in the NHL. The Leafs have a big decision to make at the conclusion of this season; do they go all in on Bernier and sign him to a contract worthy of a number one goalie? or do they dangle him at the deadline and try to get maximum return, the latter would make little to no sense, as Nonis tried for so long to secure the netminder. As long as Bernier keeps up his play of late, I see no reason why the Leafs should not pay him the contract he deserves and allow Toronto to finally have a bonifed number one goalie, not only for this season, but for years to come.

By the numbers;

Jonathan Bernier, G,  Toronto Maple Leafs        17 GP       9W, 5L, 3OTL 2.62GAA, .917 SV%

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The Francis Report - Episode 10 - Contest Contest Contest!

The latest episode of The Francis Report is OUT! We launch our 1st contest! Details are below.





Contest details: Make sure you follow us on twitter, Facebook and SoundCloud.  Send us a tweet, email, Facebook message, SoundCloud comment with #TheFrancisReport to be entered into the contest.
You get 1 entry for each social media platform you message us on with #TheFrancisReport.  Example: 1 comment on Facebook, 1 tweet on Twitter, 1 comment on SoundCloud would get you 3 entries into the contest.
Bonus Entries: You get a bonus entry if you get a new follower to Tweet/Comment us #TheFrancisReport, mentioning your name.

Prize:

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Game 5: Leafs Host Red Wings - Predictions

 Detroit won their last game via the shootout vs Boston.  With only one win in their first three games, the Red Wings will look to this home and home with The Leafs as an early turning point for them.  They need to get some momentum going. 

Record: 1-1-1

Leading Scorers (G-A-P): Nyquist 3-0-3, Franzen 0-3-3, Abdelkader 1-1-2

Toronto is riding a 2 game winning streak into the home and home with the Red Wings this weekend.  Toronto is looking to rebound form last year's free fall in the Eastern conference. The Leafs need to keep playing the way they were against NYR and COL.  They need to play a full 60 minutes each night if they want to have a chance at making the playoffs.

Record: 2-2-0

Leading Scorers (G-A-P): Bozak 3-3-6, Kessel 2-3-5, James van Riemsdyk 2-1-3

Jake Gardiner is back in the lineup.  James Reimer Makes his 3rd consecutive start.

Mike (0-4-1): 4-1 Leafs.  Phil The Thrill will get a pair and the second consecutive game winner!
Jeff (0-4-1): Leafs win this one for sure, 5-1.  Bozak is going to have a nice break-away goal and it will be Jake Gardiner with the game winner!

Mike's post: Leafs Might Want to Staal Trade Rumours - By Mike Byrne
Latest Podcast: EP2 - Tale of Two Teams
We are recording another podcast tonight, so keep an eye open for it late tonight early tomorrow.

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Breathe A Sigh Of Relief

A lot of things happened last night when the Leafs strolled into Madison Square Gardens.  James Reimer got the start.  He crawled out from the dungeon of the Air Canada Center and put on a sparkling display of goal tending excellence, until he head his head taken off by Ranger forward Dominic Moore.  You can breathe a sigh of relief though, because apparently, he is fine.

Something else that happened last night, Jake Gardiner was scratched. Really? They just signed this kid on the off season to a 5 year $20.25 million contract. But you can breathe a sigh of relief, because according to Randy Carlyle, Jake "drew the shortest straw". What's the chances of drawing the shortest straw two games in a row?  Although, one could make a case that Jake Gardiner was holding the Leafs back all this time.  The person making that case would be a fool, and be wrong.  There are people out there saying that though.

Phil's line showed up.  In fact, the entire top line for the Leafs combined for 7 points.  Which means I personally can breathe a sigh of relief, because if I heard one more comment about how fat and lazy Kessel is, I think I'd strangle a Habs fan.

Finally, Leafs Nation can breathe a sigh of relief, because the Leafs picked up their first win.  Reimer was great, Kessel's line was great, One of the big things that really stood out to me was how Percy played.  This kid is a rookie defense man and has points in all three games so far.  This has never happened in the Leafs history. I'm hoping that he can maintain this level of play all season.

Today is podcast day!  Mike and I are looking for questions for the podcast.  Feel free to send us your question and we will see about getting them in the podcast. For now just put your question in the comment section below, or you can send me the question through Facebook or twitter.

Watch for our prediction post tomorrow when the Leafs host the Avs.

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Burke's Game Plan

Brian Burke, GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs appeared on the Bryan Hayes Show on TSN Radio Monday and talked about what his game plan is over the next few weeks.

Burke said he is looking to move up in the draft, but if the Leafs stay where they are, that's alright too. He went on to say that there are no superstars in this draft but tons of talent, well beyond the top 50.

Also he talked about goaltending. He was asked if he was going to try and sign a veteran goaltender, and responded back saying he has faith in what they have, The Monster is not experiencing goaltending problems, just health issues. He feels James Reimer is ready for the big time action.

Burke mentioned that he will be looking to trade for a top line center, also stating that he has not thought about sending an offer sheet to anyone as of yet.
The Leafs GM also talked about potentially upgrading the bottom 6 forwards as well as well his defense corp.

Burke said he can not rely on just home grown talent because everyone's home grown talent is advancing each year, so if they stay the course with that, then improvement wont really happen.

The Leafs are not looking to send an offer sheet out, and are not afraid of an offersheet coming this way, again, because of the cap space. Also not afraid of MacArtur going to arbitration, because the Leafs have the cap space, and its within the rules of the CBA.

I am looking forward to the next couple weeks. It will give us a better outlook of where the Leafs may finish next year,