Showing posts with label Corsi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Corsi. Show all posts

Thursday, August 20, 2015

The Curious Case of Cody Franson

The 2015 free agent crop was one of the weakest in recent memory. Comprised of mostly depth players and second to third pairing defensemen, the fact that Cody Franson remains unsigned is curious.

In both the 2013 and 2014 offseason Franson and his agent negotiated with Leafs management late into the offseason, ending up with a one year deal and pay increase on both occasions. Since being acquired by the Toronto Maple Leafs 2011, Franson had been seeking a deal with more money and a longer term commitment from Toronto. Even after being traded to the Nashville Predators (where he began his career) prior to last years trade deadline, Franson made it publicly known he would love to return to Toronto in the offseason.

The 28 year old defenceman was having a solid season for Toronto with 55 GP, 32 points and averaging 21:23 of ice time (not too mention great corsi numbers), he was a rare bright spot on a terrible Leafs team, and looked poised to finally earn the contract he had desired since arriving in Toronto. At the time, being traded to the Predators (a playoff bound team) appeared to be a great opportunity to increase his chances of landing the big contract either in Nashville, back in Toronto or with another NHL club. However the move to Nashville may in fact be the reason he is still unsigned today.

Franson saw his ice-time reduced to an average of 17:40 per night, and an even worse 14:16 per night when Ryan Ellis was in the lineup. This may not come as a surprise, seeing as Franson went from a defence with names like Roman Polak and Stephane Robidas to a Nashville unit with Shea Weber, Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis. Although he kept up his underlying stats and great corsi numbers, Franson just never seemed to be able to make an impact with the Predators. The approach for the Cody Franson camp would be an interesting one to watch coming off the poor experience.

So now we sit in late August, training camp right around the corner and Cody Franson is still a free agent, which begs the question, why hasn't anyone signed the 28 year old? Did the experience in Nasvhille really sour his image so badly that no team wants to offer him at the very least a match to his 2014-15 contract? Perhaps Franson is trying to block out the whole Nashville part of last season and thinks he is worth the contract he was headed for following a solid season in Toronto. Whatever the reason, Franson should find a home before training camp commences for the 2015 season, it will be interesting to see not only where he lands, but for how long and how much.

What do you think is the reason Cody Franson remains unsigned? Where will he end up and what will his contract look like? Let us know your thoughts !



Thursday, December 11, 2014

Leafs Winning Streak a Cause for Concern?



Last seasons monumental collapse is something no Leaf fan wants to experience ever again. For the better part of the beginning of this season, the Leafs had been improving in all the areas that hindered them in the 2013/14 campaign. However, this current streak has brought up memories of last seasons hot start, and the eventual collapse The Leafs are currently on a 7-1-1 run, and all of us in Leafs nation are enjoying the current stretch of winning. However, there are far too many statistical similarities between the Leafs current streak, and last year’s hot start. The Leafs may be winning, but their play is declining, and that is concerning considering where that lead the team in 2013/14. In the last 3 games (all wins) the Leafs have been out shot 110-76, for a -34 differential, some of these shots against can be attributed to the Leafs being able to sit back on their lead, however, the Leafs sit back far too much, and this style of play is one that has come back to hurt the Leafs historically (hate to bring it up but, see Boston game 7) The Leafs have had an average shooting percentage of 13% which is unsustainable when compared to the league average 9%. One of the main reasons the Leafs have experienced success over the past two seasons is their stellar goaltending.

Prior to Saturday night, Jonathan Bernier had 9 consecutive starts for the Leafs, playing some of his best games as a Leaf. In the 9 games, Bernier had faced 303 and stopped 284 for a .937 save percentage, which is outstanding. In two of his last starts Bernier has had his best two performances during the stretch, first against Vancouver (stopping 44 of 46) then against Calgary on Tuesday. Reimer was called upon Wednesday might, in a move that had great skepticism. Reimer having not played in almost a month, had many speculating a rusty game for the Leafs backup, however it was quite the opposite , Reimer stopped 41/42 (.976 Sv. %) shots and was the sole reason the leafs were even in the game through three periods. Looking at the 9 game stretch last season, the Leafs goaltenders faced 305 shots and stopped 283 for a save percentage of .927, eerily similar to the similar stretch last season. A solid (sustainable) save percentage for an NHL goalie is about .915, if

The Leaf goaltending was playing with a .915 SV% the teams record (in both cases) without a doubt looks drastically different. In both the current streak and the streak of last season, the Leafs have been fortunate to have their goalies bailing them out with above average play, which unfortunately for them, is not sustainable through an 82 game season. Whether you are a fan of advanced stats or not, there is no denying that to win hockey games you must possess the puck.
 It goes without saying but, if you do not possess the puck, you cannot shoot it, score with it, or do anything except defend, and in the Leafs case, spend a lot of time hemmed in your own zone. Against Detroit, the Leafs had the worst single game possession percentage (26%) of any team in the league this season, low possession is something becoming a trend with this team again, and is something that cannot be ignored.

Last season through the Leafs first 9 games they were dead last in the league with a possession percentage of 43.3%, comparatively in this 9 game stretch the Leafs have a very similar, yet even worse possession percentage at 43%. Toronto finished 29th in the league with a 42.8% possession percentage, something that the team desperately needed to improve this season. Prior to this 9 game streak the Leafs had been showing improvement in their possession sitting at 47.3%, still not amazing, but an improvement nonetheless. Hopefully, with the Leafs bringing in guys like Kyle Dubas, these issues are already being brought to the attention of the team, and they're going to be fixed before we end up with another lost season.

The Leafs had been improving in their possession game prior to this 9 game run, slowly improving in managing more shots for and less against, and their goaltending wasn't forced to play at an unrealistic level. As odd as it may seem to be hoping the team can "turn in around" while in of 7-1-1 streak, the stats do not lie, and have come back to hurt the Leafs in the past. It is great to be able to watch the Leafs win, and continue to climb the eastern conference standings. However, and I hope this is not the case, we could potentially be seeing the team rewrite their collapse of last season. As Leaf fans that have experienced what we have over the past couple of years, we should enjoy when the team is winning, but realize there is more to hockey games than the final score, and during streaks like this we need to temper expectations and just take it one game at a time.
.








Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Welcome Back to the Family Uncle Leo

The Toronto Maple Leafs made a few offseason moves this past summer. Signing a veteran defenseman to help bring stability to the defense, bringing in a terrifyingly large and intimidating defender in Roman Polak, and bringing back Matt Frattin for no aparent reason at all. however, perhaps the best artillery the Leafs decided to arm themselves with this offseason was a Russian heat seeking missle, and of course one of the greatest parody Twitter accounts ever created.
 Leo Komarov spent last season with Dynamo Moscow of the KHL ( 52GP, 12G, 22A, 34Pts) much to the shegrin of Leafs nation Komarov was not re-signed after the lockout shortened campaign of  2013/14 which of course saw the Leafs make the playoffs for the first time in 8 seasons. Komarov was a pivotal piece of the Leafs roster that season, in terms of energy and what he brought to the club. Many factors contribted to the dismal results of last season for the Leafs, perhaps one of the most impactful was the loss of Leo Komarov.

 Since returning to the Leafs this season Komarov has been lights out (15GP, 1G, 9A, 10 Pts, 176 Hits) he has not only seen great results in his individual play, he has elevated the play of those around him, mainly David Clarkson. Clarkson is off to a solid start in his second stint with the buds (15GP, 4G, 1A, 5Pts) now, of course last seasons numbers will not be hard to beat, however Clarkson deserves credit not only for the points he has manageed to put up, but watching him on the ice this season he looks far more comfortable and is adapting well to his 3rd line role. A good portion of the credit must go to uncle Leo, he has effectively removed pressure off of Clarkson's shoulders and allowed him to play a mroe relaxed game. Both Clarkson (48.51) and Komarov (46.03) have pretty solid corsi stats which is key for a role playing line, and also something the Leafs lacked desperately last season .Komarov was (unfairly) labelled a "third line plug" which created the narrative of "if the Leafs losing Komarov has that much of an impact, this team is in trouble" a statement that so far, Komarov is causing those who subscribe to that theory to very much eat their words.


  Saturday November 8th, the Leafs played host to the Rangers, and more importantly, Leo Komarov showed us all exaclty what he is capabale of and why the Leafs never should have let him go in the first place, also providing the internet with one of the cutest pictures ever. at 15:11 of the first period on a shorthanded opportunity, Komarov came down the right wing with Matts Zucccarello draped over him like a wet blanket, proceeded to dump Zuccarello off like a high school girlfriend, drop a glove just for fun, then dish it off to Peter Holland in front of the net for his 2nd goal of the season. Uncle Leo wasn't quite finished there, he ended up scoring the game winner with 5:34 remaining in the 3rd period, and if a goal and assist aren't enough to prove his worth, cap it all off with 8 hits. Komarov's inspiring performance had the crowd chanting "LEO, LEO, LEO" for a large portion of the 3rd period and even following the final horn.

   To have a player on your team that can elevate the play of the guys around him is a special thing. To have a player who can; score, hit, make plays and energize the entire roster is that much more unique. The Toronto Maple Leafs have one heck of a "third line plug" in Leo Komarov, and for those who annointed him with that underwhelming title, I am enjoying watching this man prove you all wrong. Leo Komarov is more than just a player who goes out and hits people (something he does extremely well) he is a skilled player that the Leafs are lucky to have, and we as fans are lucky to be able to watch on a nightly basis. So, let's all raise a glass, here's to uncle Leo, the family member the other 29 NHL teams wish they had.