Leafs Winning Streak a Cause for Concern?

Last seasons monumental collapse is something no Leaf fan wants to experience ever again. For the better part of the beginning of this season, the Leafs had been improving in all the areas that hindered them in the 2013/14 campaign. However, this current streak has brought up memories of last seasons hot start, and the eventual collapse The Leafs are currently on a 7-1-1 run, and all of us in Leafs nation are enjoying the current stretch of winning. However, there are far too many statistical similarities between the Leafs current streak, and last year’s hot start. The Leafs may be winning, but their play is declining, and that is concerning considering where that lead the team in 2013/14. In the last 3 games (all wins) the Leafs have been out shot 110-76, for a -34 differential, some of these shots against can be attributed to the Leafs being able to sit back on their lead, however, the Leafs sit back far too much, and this style of play is one that has come back to hurt the Leafs historically (hate to bring it up but, see Boston game 7) The Leafs have had an average shooting percentage of 13% which is unsustainable when compared to the league average 9%. One of the main reasons the Leafs have experienced success over the past two seasons is their stellar goaltending.

Prior to Saturday night, Jonathan Bernier had 9 consecutive starts for the Leafs, playing some of his best games as a Leaf. In the 9 games, Bernier had faced 303 and stopped 284 for a .937 save percentage, which is outstanding. In two of his last starts Bernier has had his best two performances during the stretch, first against Vancouver (stopping 44 of 46) then against Calgary on Tuesday. Reimer was called upon Wednesday might, in a move that had great skepticism. Reimer having not played in almost a month, had many speculating a rusty game for the Leafs backup, however it was quite the opposite , Reimer stopped 41/42 (.976 Sv. %) shots and was the sole reason the leafs were even in the game through three periods. Looking at the 9 game stretch last season, the Leafs goaltenders faced 305 shots and stopped 283 for a save percentage of .927, eerily similar to the similar stretch last season. A solid (sustainable) save percentage for an NHL goalie is about .915, if

The Leaf goaltending was playing with a .915 SV% the teams record (in both cases) without a doubt looks drastically different. In both the current streak and the streak of last season, the Leafs have been fortunate to have their goalies bailing them out with above average play, which unfortunately for them, is not sustainable through an 82 game season. Whether you are a fan of advanced stats or not, there is no denying that to win hockey games you must possess the puck.

 It goes without saying but, if you do not possess the puck, you cannot shoot it, score with it, or do anything except defend, and in the Leafs case, spend a lot of time hemmed in your own zone. Against Detroit, the Leafs had the worst single game possession percentage (26%) of any team in the league this season, low possession is something becoming a trend with this team again, and is something that cannot be ignored.

Last season through the Leafs first 9 games they were dead last in the league with a possession percentage of 43.3%, comparatively in this 9 game stretch the Leafs have a very similar, yet even worse possession percentage at 43%. Toronto finished 29th in the league with a 42.8% possession percentage, something that the team desperately needed to improve this season. Prior to this 9 game streak the Leafs had been showing improvement in their possession sitting at 47.3%, still not amazing, but an improvement nonetheless. Hopefully, with the Leafs bringing in guys like Kyle Dubas, these issues are already being brought to the attention of the team, and they're going to be fixed before we end up with another lost season.

The Leafs had been improving in their possession game prior to this 9 game run, slowly improving in managing more shots for and less against, and their goaltending wasn't forced to play at an unrealistic level. As odd as it may seem to be hoping the team can "turn in around" while in of 7-1-1 streak, the stats do not lie, and have come back to hurt the Leafs in the past. It is great to be able to watch the Leafs win, and continue to climb the eastern conference standings. However, and I hope this is not the case, we could potentially be seeing the team rewrite their collapse of last season. As Leaf fans that have experienced what we have over the past couple of years, we should enjoy when the team is winning, but realize there is more to hockey games than the final score, and during streaks like this we need to temper expectations and just take it one game at a time.

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A Chance to Thrive for #45

Early in to the 2014/15 season it was looking like the Leafs would be experiencing another season with a goalie controversy on their hands. As we move into the second quarter of the season it appears Bernier is ready to claim the net. 

Initially , when Dave Nonis made the trade for Bernier last offseason, I was very much bewildered by the move and totally against it, granted, I have always been a huge fan of James Reimer, especially following the lockout shortened season where he dragged the Leafs into the playoffs and single handedly took them to game 7 with the Bruins. 

  The Bernier deal seemed, at the time like a move that was made to address an area the Leafs had no need to address, especially when defense was (and continues to be) a glaring area of need for this team. As soon as the trade was made it was believed Bernier was finally going to be given the chance tp be a number one goalie, an opportunity the entire league felt he deserved. 

  At first it appeared as though Randy Carlyle was going to stick to the 1a, 1b system with the two net minders. Perhaps this philosophy is what created the controversy in the first place, the whole narrative could've been avoided if Carlyle had just named Bernier the number one. Although Carlyle  always seemed more comfortable to use Bernier on a nightly basis. As the season progressed #45 was earning a majority of the starts, ending up with 55 games played, a number that likely would have been higher if not for a late season groin injury. Considering how the Leafs ended last season, it would only seem natural Bernier would be able to come in to this season and be named the outright number one. However, an offseason that saw a 2 year extension for James Reimer, more confusing quotes from the head coachwould lead to more confusion surrounding the Toronto net.

Bernier began the season with a (1-3-0 ) allowing 10 goals in 3 losses, many of which were shaky, making the netminder look very human, especially compared to last season. The lacklustre start combined with what was a solid start for Reimer, had many questioning if Bernier would seize the opportunity and take over the net in Toronto. However, if there is one thing Carlyle should get credit for, continued faith in Bernier appears to be paying off. Recently, Bernier has been given complete control of his destiny and is proving equal to the task. One thing is clear about Jonathan Bernier, when he is on, he is dynamite and can steal you a few games. The one thing Leaf nation need to see from him is consitency. In the last 5 games Bernier is 4-0-1 and has looked solid in each of the starts. We haven't seen Reimer in net since  November 18th against the Preds.

Bernier is set to make his 7th conescutive start tonight, as the Leafs take on the Devils. It appears as if he is ready to claim sole posession of the number one spot on the depth chart. No matter what happens throughout the rest of this season the Leafs will have a crucial decision to make at the end of the season. There is no doubt then when he is playing at the level we all know he is capable of, Bernier is a top 10 goalie in the NHL. The Leafs have a big decision to make at the conclusion of this season; do they go all in on Bernier and sign him to a contract worthy of a number one goalie? or do they dangle him at the deadline and try to get maximum return, the latter would make little to no sense, as Nonis tried for so long to secure the netminder. As long as Bernier keeps up his play of late, I see no reason why the Leafs should not pay him the contract he deserves and allow Toronto to finally have a bonifed number one goalie, not only for this season, but for years to come.

By the numbers;

Jonathan Bernier, G,  Toronto Maple Leafs        17 GP       9W, 5L, 3OTL 2.62GAA, .917 SV%

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